In this article we will formulate a Maple Leafs vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Monday, January 20th at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 29-16-2 this year after they defeated Montreal by a score of 7-3 in their last game. Toronto trailed 3-0 in the second period, but they scored the last seven goals in the game for the win. The Maple Leafs were out shot by a total of 35-34, won 41.8% of the face-offs, and went 2-4 on the power play in the game. Toronto got goals from Kampf, Lorentz, Matthews, McMann, Nylander, Robertson, and Ekman-Larsson, while Woll stopped 32 out of 35 shots in the win. 

Prior to that victory, the Maple Leafs defeated the Devils by a score of 4-3, but did lose to the Stars by a score of 4-1 before that. Toronto has lost three of their last five games and they are currently leading the Atlantic standings with 60 points. Toronto has scored 3.13 goals per game and they have allowed 2.85 goals against per game, while also going 21.6% on the power play and 81.4% on the penalty kill this season. Mitch Marner has led Toronto with 14 goals, 50 assists, and 110 shots on goal, while William Nylander has added 27 goals, 21 assists, and 157 shots on goal. Joseph Woll is 16-8-0 with a 2.68 goals against average and a .907 save percentage this season. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 25-16-3 this season after they defeated Detroit by a score of 5-1 in their last game. Tampa Bay scored the first four goals in the game and they were able to coast to the win in the third period. The Lightning were out shot by a total of 40-22, won 46% of the face-offs, and went 2-3 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got goals from Chaffee, Guentzel, Kucherov, Point, and Raddysh, while Vasilevskiy stopped 39 out of 40 shots in the game. 

Prior to that win, the Lightning defeated the Ducks by a score of 4-3, but did lose to the Bruins by a score of 6-2 before that. Tampa Bay has won five of their last seven games and they are currently third in the Atlantic standings with 53 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.66 goals per game and they have allowed 2.77 goals against per game, while also going 27.1% on the power play and 82.4% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led Tampa Bay with 21 goals, 47 assists, and 145 shots on goal, while Brandon Hagel has added 20 goals, 29 assists, and 129 shots on goal. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 20-13-2 with a 2.35 goals against average and a .916 save percentage this year. 

Why the Maple Leafs will beat the Lightning

• The Maple Leafs have won nine of their last 10 games at Scotiabank Arena against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Lightning have lost each of their last six games as road underdogs following a win.
• The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in each of their last seven games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The favorites have won the second period in each of the last five games between the Lightning and Maple Leafs.

Total Goals Facts

• Seven of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the last six games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Five of the Lightning’s last six road games against opponents on a winning streak have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last 14 games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last six games at Scotiabank Arena.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• Auston Matthews has scored at least one goal in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four home games against the Lightning.
• Auston Matthews has recorded at least one point in each of the Maple Leafs’ last 16 games as home favorites against the Lightning.
• Mitch Marner has recorded at least one assist in each of his last 13 home appearances against the Lightning after playing less than 20 minutes in the Maple Leafs’ last game.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one point in each of the Lightning’s last 17 games as road underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in nine of the Lightning’s last 10 road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Brayden Point has scored a goal in four of the Lightning’s last five games against the Maple Leafs.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of only three teams to win 6+ games when trailing after Period 2 this season.
• The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of only three teams to win a game when trailing by 3 or more goals after Period 1 this season.
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 1st in the league for goals per game this season (3.66).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league in power play percentage this season (27.13%).

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup after winning their last two games, but Toronto will be on home ice. The Maple Leafs are 18-9-0 at home, while the Lightning are 10-10-2 on the road this year. Tampa Bay has won three of their last four games and they have scored at least four goals in all three of those wins. Toronto’s offense has been a little inconsistent in recent weeks, but they have scored 11 goals in their last two games. I really like how Toronto played in their comeback win over Montreal and I think a win like that can give them a ton of momentum. Take the Leafs here.