NFL 2024 Super Wild Card Round Weekend Recap: Three Betting Lessons We Learned |
Oddstrader
The Wild Card round is completed. Favorites were 3-3 SU and just 2-4 ATS and Dallas was the only home team to lose outright. What can we take away from the opening round of the NFL Playoffs?
Consider these points before you place your bets on the Divisional Round games at top sportsbooks.
1. Coaching Matters in the PostseasonWhen you break down all six Wild Card contests, one aspect stood out above all others from this handicapper’s perspective, coaching.
LaFleur vs. McCarthyEveryone knew Dallas could be run on and they played man-to-man defense. After Green Bay went right down the field on the opening drive for a TD, the Cowboys made few visible adjustments to contain the Packers’ Aaron Jones. For reasons unknown, Dallas played zone against a young and potentially talented receiving group and Jordan Love picked it apart. Matt LaFleur out-coached Mike McCarthy in all facets. Buffalo had the right approach to attack Pittsburgh and place them on the defensive. It worked. Only what seems to be a typical Bills lull brought the Steelers back into the game.Sirianni’s StrugglesPhiladelphia was beaten before they left for Tampa Bay. After being the unquestioned leader of the Eagles for two seasons, Nick Sirianni appeared to believe he was a great coach. He hired great coordinators to start, but when they left, he did not come close to replacing them effectively. Underlying issues emerged and the veteran players seemed disengaged and by some accounts, Sirianni lost the locker room. The Bucs’ Todd Bowles saw the signs on tape and had the correct game plan to exploit all of Philly’s problems.2. Execution and Tackling Win Postseason GamesA head coach and his staff can assemble outstanding game plans, but if they are not executed properly, it can all be for naught. That is where the attention to detail comes into play. You need all 11 players to work in harmony to carry out their individual and collective assignments on offense and defense. Once the players understand and have proof the game plan will work, their willingness to follow through and confidence will rise and they’ll have a new heightened sense to perform well. On defense, mistakes or assignment breakdowns will happen. One controllable aspect that can contain damage is tackling and not letting errors, physical or mental, lead to big plays. We saw this in all six matchups and it helped every winning team.3. Study Box Scores and Look for Divisional Round Angles That Have MeaningEach football bettor has come away with their thoughts about the Wild Card contests. Smart bettors go back and research how each team advanced. Did they dominate or catch a few fortunate breaks? Did the offense and defense match season norms or did they overachieve dramatically which could lead to a degree of regression? These are elements you have to know. Finally, X (formerly Twitter) is a great resource for betting information that can give you insights about how teams perform as double-digit favorites, if the betting public is too heavy on one side of a side or total or how do #1 seeds do with rest. The more info you have, the better prepared you will be to win this week. |